Annual growth of solar energy capacity will exceed 200 GW for the first time in 2022

Solar PV will grow at double-digit rates in both 2021 and 2022, according to a new forecast from consulting firm IHS Markit. Its growth next year will overcome the barrier of 200 GW (direct current) for the first time.

The total investment in 2022 will be at least US$170 billion.

Until recently, reducing the cost of photovoltaic systems has been a critical factor in the exponential growth of the industry. Between 2013 and 2020, global average costs decreased by more than 50%, while global installed capacity increased by 275%.

However, today there is a reversal of the price trend. According to IHS Markit, the cost of photovoltaic systems increased by 4% from 2020 to 2021, which presented new challenges for the growing market. Since August 2021, average module production costs have increased by more than 15%, and solar module prices have now returned to 2019 levels. [See also: “The energy crisis has hit the production of solar modules”].

IHS Markit estimates that the current price range for industrial scale PV systems is between $0.55 and $0.97/Watt. This is slightly higher than a year ago.

Looking back, in 2010, according to the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), capital costs for large-scale solar generation facilities were around $4.75/Watt.

BloombergNEF, despite a difficult market situation, recently raised its solar energy forecast for 2021 to 191 GW. And for 2022, its analysts, like IHS experts, expect more than 200 GW of solar power plants.

The European solar energy association SolarPower Europe also believes (July forecast) that in 2022 the annual increase in photovoltaic capacity in the world will exceed 200 GW for the first time.

PV InfoLink forecasts solar module sales of 195.6 GW in 2022, close to solar capacity growth figures published by IHS Markit, BloombergNEF and SolarPower Europe.