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In 2022, a record increase in renewable energy capacity is predicted. The main adherent of the energy transition – the European Union – at the same time intends to accelerate the commissioning of renewable energy facilities in the coming years, with the expectation that by 2030 they will provide 45% of energy consumption. However, for this, the EU countries will have to “tighten the energy belts”, reducing energy consumption significantly more than previously thought. At the same time, the forced “green” transition itself carries a number of serious risks, and primarily for Europe.
“Green” plans
The International Energy Agency predicts that in 2022 the total renewable energy capacity in the world will grow by 8%, or 320 GW. This will be another record (in 2021, the increase was 6%, or 295 GW). More than half of the growth will be provided by solar energy, with China leading the way in the development of this sector, which will account for 45% of new renewable energy capacities in 2022–2023.
However, due to the “pandemic” increase in prices for materials used in the renewable energy sector (for example, at the end of the first quarter of 2022, PV grade polysilicon has risen in price by 300% compared to the beginning of 2021), as well as the increase in the cost of transportation, the cost of facilities solar and wind energy will be higher than they were before the pandemic. However, “green” energy, according to the IEA, will be able to compete with “hydrocarbon” energy, as oil, gas and coal prices are also on the rise, itek.ru reports.
It is RES projects that are designed to ensure the achievement of climate goals, the main of which is to curb the growth of the average global temperature. Initially, it was assumed that by the end of the century it should not exceed 2 °C, but subsequently the indicator of 1.5 °C was chosen as a benchmark.
The European Union is one of the main drivers of the “green” energy transition. The EU countries have committed themselves to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, which is exactly what should help curb the rise in global temperatures. The draft new proposals of the European Commission say that in order to achieve the goals, the introduction of renewable energy should be accelerated and by 2030 renewable sources should provide 45% of demand, and not 40%, as previously assumed. This requires more than doubling the current capacity of renewable energy facilities, bringing it from 511 GW to 1236 GW. In particular, it is proposed to double (compared to the current level) the rate of commissioning of solar energy capacities by 2028.
“Green” reality
But everything has its price, and the draft new proposals from Brussels say that in order to zero emissions, the European Union will have to reduce energy consumption by 2030 not by 9%, as previously assumed, but by 13%.
In addition, renewable energy sources themselves and the green strategy associated with them carry certain risks.
“There are quite a few areas of renewable energy, but they differ significantly from each other. There is, for example, a well-tested, very common direction – hydropower. It provides about 2% of the total energy consumption in the world. “Champions” in this area are China and Russia, and, for example, the European Union is an “outsider,” says Rustam Tankaev, General Director of InfoTEK-Terminal. – If we talk about solar and wind energy, then we should remember that we do not know how to control the climate. According to energy experts, the share of risky sources in the energy balance of any country should not exceed 10%. Otherwise, risks arise, such as the risks of social explosion in the event of power outages. At some point, Europe brought the combined share of wind and solar generation in its energy mix to 20%.
In addition, solar and wind energy can be considered “clean” only conditionally, Tankaev points out. First, the very process of manufacturing devices that, in turn, generate this energy, is very energy intensive. And secondly, it is “dirty” from the point of view of ecology (both materials and energy used in production have a significant carbon footprint). In addition, the use of the same windmills creates a number of problems, for example, with the migration of birds.
Aleksey Mukhin, head of the Centrum Foundation, notes that the events of recent years have shown that “green” energy has only an indirect relationship to the climate and the purification of the atmosphere as such.
“Green” energy is primarily about money. Forcibly transferring global energy to a “green” channel is very well paid. And the people who do this set themselves the goal of making money, and not modernizing the energy sector so that it at least reduces the harm done to the environment, says Mukhin. – At the same time, attempts to speed up the energy transition have already led to results that are completely opposite to the declared goals. This was very clearly visible in 2021, when Europe relied too much on renewable energy, but renewable sources could not provide the necessary generation, and as a result they had to switch to coal. That is, they came exactly to what they tried to get away from. I had to de-mothball those energy sources that seemed to be mothballed forever.”
According to Mukhin, in order for the global economy to survive in the conditions of a “green” transition, it is necessary to more carefully calculate the risks, and in no case should one rush here. The expert believes that now is not the time for the introduction of “green” standards, not to mention the forced energy transition. On the contrary, now it is necessary to focus on the modernization of existing hydrocarbon production in order to really reduce the carbon footprint, reducing the burden on the environment. And only after that, gradually, calculating all the risks and costs, it is possible to transfer the economy to a “green” track. Otherwise, according to Mukhin, the world economic system, which simply cannot cope with this, is in danger of a real catastrophe.
“In addition, it should be remembered that with a forced forced energy transition, deformations occur. And their consequences fall on the shoulders of the end consumer, for whom this is a matter of physical survival in the truest sense, – says the head of Centrum. – And those who are lobbying for a forced transfer to “green” energy do not think about consumers. Which, by the way, runs counter to the values that the collective West declares (for example, human rights).
The European Commission (EC) has published a plan to completely phase out Russian energy resources by 2027 worth up to €195 billion. The key question in it is how to replace the 155 billion cubic meters of gas that the EU countries receive from the Russian Federation. They will be displaced mainly by an accelerated transition to renewable energy sources, which should reach an incredible 45% of the energy mix by 2030. It is also planned to increase gas imports from alternative sources. In parallel, the EC is preparing a plan for an emergency reduction in gas demand in the event of a halt in supplies from the Russian Federation.