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The International Energy Agency predicted an increase in the share of renewable energy sources in the production of electricity in the world up to 30% in five years (according to the results of 2017 – 24%), or up to 1–1.3 TW. According to Bloomberg, these volumes are comparable to existing renewable energy facilities built over the past 40 years. It will take the world just five years to put another terawatt of renewable energy into operation.
According to a new IEA report, solar energy production will triple by 2023 (an increase in this segment over the next five years will be 575 GW), wind power – by 60% (324 GW), and hydropower – by 12.4% (at 125 GW). China in these years will become the largest consumer of renewable energy.
Since 2015, more “clean energy” power generation capacities (nuclear, solar, hydro and wind power) have been commissioned in the world than those operating on fossil hydrocarbons (oil, gas and coal). Last year, 178 GW of new renewable energy capacities were commissioned in the world. According to the IEA forecast, in the next five years, RES will outpace natural gas and coal in terms of new capacity in the power industry.
The agency warns of a possible loss of natural gas positions in this segment, which will be squeezed out by cheaper coal, as well as solar and wind energy that are increasing competitiveness. The increase in coal production will ensure that the “dirtiest fossil fuel” will remain the largest source in electricity generation. Coal now accounts for about 27% of the world’s final energy consumption. According to the agency’s forecasts, this share will be reduced to 22% only by 2040. While RES by this date, according to the latest IEA report, will be able to provide only 18% of all human energy needs.
In the next five years, China will account for about 41% of the increase in renewable energy consumption. By 2023, 438 GW of “clean energy” will be introduced in the country, which will allow China to overtake the European Union and become the largest consumer of renewable energy. In particular, in five years, 40% of the production of solar energy in the world will be concentrated in this state. However, in percentage terms, the green energy leader will be Brazil, which by the end of the forecast period will provide more than 45% of its energy consumption from RES (mainly hydro and bioenergy). The United States, which under Obama was one of the leaders in renewable energy, is now facing unpredictable times in the development of this segment due to the decisions of the Trump administration. The IEA estimates that solar and wind power continue to grow in the United States,
Modern bioenergy is a “blind spot” in RES
According to the IEA, this is the most underestimated energy source, although in 2017 it accounted for half of the consumption of all “clean energy”. According to the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, modern bioenergy reduces greenhouse gas emissions throughout the entire production cycle, which reduces the social, environmental and economic consequences of energy consumption, so this renewable energy segment has great prospects for further growth. An increase in demand for biofuels is observed in the transport segment, as well as in the production of thermal energy. “Modern bioenergy is a giant that has not been noticed against the background of other renewable energy sources,” Birol believes. While last year this segment accounted for the same amount of global consumption of renewable sources as solar, hydro and wind energy combined. In the transport segment, with regard to RES, biofuels will continue to dominate in the next five years. Although electricity consumption by electric transport (electric cars, electric buses, rail transport and other vehicles) will grow by 65% by 2023 (from a low base). In addition, modern bioenergy, according to the agency, currently accounts for 70% of thermal energy produced using renewable energy sources.