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The commissioning of generation based on renewable energy sources (RES) in the world in 2022 will reach a record level of 320 GW, according to the Renewable Energy Market review of the International Energy Agency (IEA), published on May 11. This is 8.5% more than last year, when 295 GW of renewable energy were introduced.
The IEA raised its forecast by 8% from the December 2021 estimate, while at the same time raising the forecasts for the introduction of renewable energy in China (+16%), the European Union (EU, +3%) and Latin America (+17%). The forecast for the US was, on the contrary, lowered by 8%.
The report says that the increase in new renewable energy capacity in 2021 was also a record, increasing by 6% compared to 2020. The commissioning of solar power plants (SPP) and hydroelectric power plants was higher than in 2020, and wind farms (WPP) decreased by 17%. Almost half – 46% – of all renewable energy inputs were in China. The second largest market was the EU market – about 15%. Solar generation was launched mainly in Europe, the IEA points out, noting the acceleration of projects in Spain, France, Poland and Germany.
In 2022, the main increase in renewable energy in the world will come from solar generation – 60%, or 190 GW (+25% by 2021), the IEA believes. About a quarter more – to land-based wind farms (excluding offshore installations being built in the sea off the coast). In 2023, the commissioning of solar power plants will reach almost 200 GW, the agency notes. Wind and solar generation can significantly reduce the dependence of the EU energy sector on gas supplies from Russia by 2023, the review says.
The global energy crisis has led to an increase in interest in renewable energy, especially in Europe. The EU announced plans to accelerate the introduction of renewable energy after the start of Russia’s special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine in February 2022, the IEA explains. “In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many EU countries have announced plans to accelerate the development of renewable energy sources aimed at reducing their dependence on Russian gas,” the report says.
Similar plans have been announced by Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal, the IEA notes. But the implementation of these plans until 2023 is still limited, especially for large-scale projects, the agency’s experts point out. According to the IEA, in 2022, more than 40 GW of renewable energy capacities will be launched in the EU, more than half of which will be solar power plants.
According to the IEA, Russia provides about 45% of EU gas imports. Thanks to these supplies, 100-200 billion kWh of electricity is generated per year. According to the agency’s forecast, in 2021-2023. electricity production from renewable energy sources in the EU will grow to 180 billion kWh, which is close to the upper limit of generation from Russian gas. But the reality will depend on energy efficiency measures to curb energy demand, as well as coal and nuclear phase-out policies in several European countries, the report notes.
Demand for electricity in Europe began to rise sharply last year against the background of the recovery of the global economy after the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the opening of borders and the intensification of travel. Energy companies did not have time to increase production. In the second half of 2021, the decline in wind power generation due to calm weather provoked a surge in demand for gas and coal, which led to an increase in energy prices.
In the autumn of 2021, the cost of gas in the EU broke record after record, reaching $2,200 per 1,000 cubic meters in December. m, which at that time became a historical maximum (gas was traded more expensive in Europe only in March 2022, after the start of the NWO). On average, the spot gas price in the EU in 2021 was three times higher than in 2020 ($534 vs. $180 per 1,000 cubic meters). In this situation, the coal energy renaissance took place in the EU: according to the IEA, electricity generation at coal-fired thermal power plants in 2021 increased by more than 11%.
But IEA experts point out that in 2022-2023. The cost of renewable energy will be higher than before the coronavirus pandemic. Prices for many green energy feedstocks and transportation costs continue to rise. From 2020 to March 2022, the price of polysilicon for solar panels increased by 4 times, steel increased by 50%, copper by 70%, aluminum by 2 times, and transportation costs increased by almost 5 times. As a result, the total investment costs in the construction of solar power plants and wind farms increased by 15–25%, the energy agency calculated.
But the competitiveness of renewable energy is improving due to a much sharper increase in the cost of gas and coal. The IEA explains that electricity prices in the EU are breaking historical records, with wholesale prices in Germany, France, Italy and Spain more than 6 times higher than the 2016-2020 average.
The IEA forecast as a whole is likely to come true, believes Vladimir Gorchakov, head of the ACRA sustainable development risk assessment group. In the EU, the introduction of renewable energy generation will definitely accelerate, such plans have already been published by the European Commission, but specific measures have not yet been developed, he notes. Making a forecast for 2022 is now extremely difficult due to a lack of understanding of the depth and duration of the energy crisis, the analyst emphasizes. In the long term, according to him, the share of renewable energy in the EU will grow at a faster pace.
According to Sergey Grishunin, Managing Director of the NRA rating service, in 2022 in the EU, most likely, coal-fired generation will solve energy problems. Renewable energy generation will rise in price significantly, and against the backdrop of rising energy costs, the EU will have difficulties with investments in such projects, he believes. Europe will be able to return to the issue of active development of RES if energy prices stabilize, which will happen no earlier than 2023, the expert adds. The implementation of EU plans may be hindered by a shortage of microelectronics and raw materials and logistical problems, says Alexei Zhikharev, director of the Association for the Development of Renewable Energy.
Theoretically, a replacement for Russian gas for the EU could be found in about five years, but it would be an extremely expensive alternative without a guarantee of uninterrupted supplies, Grishunin said. According to Zhikharev, in order to completely replace Russian hydrocarbons with renewable energy sources, the EU needs at least 10 years and more than 2.5 trillion euros of investments.